Most downloaded ecological economics articles elsevier. The study, led by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the university of maryland, investigates the factors that have historically contributed to the fall of some of the worlds greatest civilizations. Human and nature dynamics handy modeling inequality and use safa motesharrei. Human and nature dynamics scenarios summary and conclusions outline motivation the predatorprey model motivation i earth system models have been developed since 1960s i they started with just a model for the atmosphere i new components like ocean, land, seaice, carbon cycle, vegetation, etc. The ones marked may be different from the article in the profile. Mar 28, 2014 a soontobe published research paper, human and nature dynamics handy.
Sesync, umd researchers to publish paper in ecological. Modeling inequality and use of resources inthe collapse or sustainability of societies safa motesharrei schoolofpublicpolicy and departmentofmathematics university of maryland and national socioenvironmental synthesis center sesync jorge rivas departmentofpoliticalscience university of minnesota. The focus is on predicting longterm behavior rather than shortterm forecasting. Human and nature dynamical model handy with rich and poor. The paper on handy was published in the journal ecological economics, and received. The research project is based on a new crossdisciplinary human and nature dynamical handy model, led by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the us national science foundationsupported national socioenvironmental synthesis center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. Methodological and ideological options human and nature dynamics handy. Mar 21, 2014 motesharrei received minor support from nasa to develop a coupled earth system model. We refer to the per capita population change rates as change rates.
Human and nature dynamics handy modeling inequality and sustainability. The independent research project is based on a new crossdisciplinary human and nature dynamical handy model, led by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the us national science. Nasa is distancing itself from a new study that investigates how unsustainable resource exploitation and rising income inequality could lead to the collapse of civilization. A soontobe published research paper human and nature dynamics handy. But now we know humans are the driving force in a new geologic age called the anthropocene. Nasa clarifies role in new civilizationcollapse study space. As indicated above, human and nature dynamics handy was originally built based on the predatorprey model. New model shows moderate resource use, reduced economic inequality keys to sustainability 2 april 2014 a new analytical tool adds human factors to a. Healing a world on the brink of ecosocial collapse requires an understanding of how planetary health has declined, how sustainable societies worked before, and how we can restore them. Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies safa motesharrei school of public policy and department of mathematics university of maryland and national socioenvironmental synthesis center sesync jorge rivas department of political science university of minnesota.
Human and nature dynamics model, motesharrei et al. Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies by safa motesharrei, jorge rivas and eugenia kalnay download pdf 890 kb. The predatorprey model was the original inspiration behind handy. Handy model included bidirectional feedbacks in a minimal model. The fall of the roman empire, and the equally if not more advanced han, mauryan, and gupta empires, as well as so many advanced. Safa motesharri, jorge rivas and eugenia kalnay, a minimal model for. Carrying capacity is developed as a practical measure for forecasting collapses. Discussion in american politics started by veritas, mar 19. Known by the acronym handy, for human and nature dynamics, the model was developed by three researchers.
Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies. This model called handy, for human and nature dynamics advances. Lead author safa motesharrei is a phd candidate in mathematics and public policy at the university of maryland. Modeling inequality and sustainability safa motesharrei, jorge rivas eugenia kalnay university of maryland numerical analysis and predictability university of pittsburgh, 34 may 2016. We thank safa motesharrei and jorge rivas for their comments that. The handy model of motesharrei, rivas, and kalnay examines interactions with the environment by human populations, both between poor and rich people, commoners and elites. Mar 21, 2014 nasa is distancing itself from a new study that investigates how unsustainable resource exploitation and rising income inequality could lead to the collapse of civilization.
Collapses have occurred frequently in history, often followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Nasa study concludes when civilization will end, and its not. Seventh international conference on mathematical modeling. The report, written by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the national socioenvironmental synthesis center along with a team of. Handy human and nature dynamical model 9 developed jointly by researchers at the university of maryland and the university of minnesota. A sustainable steady state is shown to be possible in different types of societies. Handy describes situations where there are two classes of people, called commoners, ct, and elites, et. Mar 20, 2014 a soontobe published research paper human and nature dynamics handy. Mar 14, 2014 the independent research project is based on a new crossdisciplinary human and nature dynamical handy model, led by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the us national science.
A realistic projection of greenhouse gas ghg emissions and the resulting anthropogenic climate change can only be achieved through the inclusion of human population impacts with feedbacks onto global climate models. Motesharrei received minor support from nasa to develop a coupled earth system model. This cited by count includes citations to the following articles in scholar. Handy, for human and nature dynamics advances beyond existing biolog ical dynamic populati on mod els by simulta neou sly mo delin g two separa t e importa nt featur es which seem to appear acro. This system of equations was derived independently by two mathematicians, alfred lotka and vitto volterra, in the early 20th century lotka, 1925. Orgel the salk institute for biological studies, p. Handy is a 4variable thought experiment model for interaction of humans and nature. Nasa study concludes when civilization will end, and its. Societal collapse also known as civilizational collapse is the fall of a complex human society. Davidoff, ning zeng science, out on september 7 2018. Mar 15, 2014 over the past 5,000 years of human history, the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity, and the division of society into elites rich and commoners poor as a result of the previously menioned factors have appeared across societies that have collapsed, states the study. Ecological strain and economic stratification could lead to the global fall of modern civilization within decades, researchers warn in a disturbing new study pdf sponsored by nasas goddard space flight center history shows that complex, advanced civilizations from the roman to han empires are capable of collapse, note the authors, who hail from the. Applied mathematician safa motesharrei and a team of scientists from us universities and thinktanks analysed the worlds great civilisations over the past 5 000 years using a mathematical model they call human and nature dynamics handy. These models reach down into deforestation, agricultural impacts, changes to the oceans, iceworlds and atmosphere.
Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies safa motesharrei, jorge rivas, eugenia kalnay pages 90102. Many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a general. The commoners do the work of growing and storing, or hunting and gathering food, bt. Handy, for human and nature dynamics advances beyond existing biolog ical dynamic populati on mod els by simulta neou sly mo delin g two separa t e. Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies safa motesharreia. New model shows moderate resource use, reduced economic. A multicohort dynamic human population model and new formula for twoway coupling with climate models abstract. Mar 18, 2014 the report, written by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the national socioenvironmental synthesis center along with a team of natural and social scientists, explains that modern. A soontobe published research paper, human and nature dynamics handy.
Some of this funding was spent on the mathematical development of. This model describes the dynamics of competition between two species, say, wolves and rabbits. Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies by safa motesharrei, jorge rivas and eugenia kalnay download pdf. Some of this funding was spent on the mathematical development of the handy model. The elites control the societys wealth and consume it at a higher rate than commoners, whose work produces the wealth. The research project is based on a new crossdisciplinary human and nature dynamical handy model, led by applied mathematician safa motesharrei of the us national science foundationsupported. Such a disintegration may be relatively abrupt, as in the case of maya civilization, or gradual, as in the case of the fall of the western roman empire. Scientists have created complex models that project an extreme shift in our climate. Many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a. Jorge rivas, department of political science, university of. Citescore values are based on citation counts in a given year e. A minimal model for human and nature interaction umd.
Such a disintegration may be relatively abrupt, as in the case of maya civilization, or gradual, as in the case of the fall of the western roman empire the subject of societal collapse is of interest in such fields as history, anthropology, sociology, political science, and, more. Ivy league statistician debunks nasafunded socialism or. Abstract there are widespread concerns that current trends in resourceuse are unsustainable, but possibilities of overshootcollapse remain controversial. The richandpoor model for human and nature dynamics. Safa motesharrei of the school of public policy and department of mathematics, university of maryland and national socioenvironmental synthesis center sesync. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. Collapse of modern civilization a real possibility. Safa motesharrei of the school of public policy and. Pdf there are widespread concerns that current trends in resourceuse are. Variable values for the scenarios shown in the article can be found in the dict pyhandy. Nov 01, 2014 known by the acronym handy, for human and nature dynamics, the model was developed by three researchers.